米国の家計債務は、現在、驚異的な18Tであり、残忍な住宅ローン率とペアになっており、悪党のように引き締まっているビットコインの供給クランチです。富への古い道は、現代性の重みの下で崩壊していますか？ Bitcoinの上昇は現代のおとぎ話にほかなりませんが、住宅市場は警告的なものに変わりつつあります。 🏡💥
目次
不動産は減速しています – 速い
何年もの間、不動産は富を築くための典型的な道でした。ゆっくりと安定したカメのように、家の価値は一般的に時間とともに上昇しており、財産所有権は中流階級の安全な避難所でした。 🏡💰
しかし、ああ、テーブルがどのように変わったか！住宅市場は現在、大恐pressionに匹敵する可能性のある減速の兆候を示しています。住宅は市場で苦しんでおり、売り手は価格を削減しており、買い手は石の壁のように不屈の住宅ローン料金に取り組んでいます。 🛑📉
最近のデータによると、平均的な住宅は現在、提示価格を1.8％下回って販売しています。これは、ほぼ2年で最大の割引です。一方、典型的な家を売るのに時間がかかる時間は56日間まで延長され、5年で最長の待ち時間を記録しました。 🕒📉
breaking：平均的な米国の住宅は現在、提示価格よりも1.8％少なく販売されています。2年で最大の割引です。 >
典型的な家が販売するのに平均56日かかり、5年で最長のスパンです。…– 2025年2月17日、Kobeissiレター（@kobeissiletter）
フロリダでは、減速はさらに顕著です。マイアミやフォートローダーデールなどの都市では、リスティングの60％以上が2か月以上も売れ続けています。州の一部の住宅は、リストされた価格よりも5％も販売されています。これは、国内で最も急な割引です。 🌴📉
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BTCは最近、史上最高の109,114ドルに達した後、2月19日現在95,850ドルに戻りました。 📈💰
それで、不動産が販売が難しくなり、所有がより高価になるにつれて、ビットコインが究極の価値のある貯蔵庫として出現する可能性がありますか？調べてみましょう。 🕵🕵嫌い
希少な生け垣から流動性トラップまで
住宅市場は急激な減速を経験しており、住宅ローンの高度な金利、住宅価格の高騰、流動性の低下により圧迫されています。 🛑📉
平均30年の住宅ローン率は6.96％のままであり、パンデミック前の3％〜5％のレートとはまったく対照的です。 🏦💥
一方、米国のホームセール価格の中央値は前年比で4％上昇していますが、この増加はより強力な市場に変換されていません。手ごろな圧力は需要を抑え続けています。 📉🏠
いくつかの重要なトレンドがこのシフトを強調しています：
- 家が契約を締結する時間の中央値は34日間に跳ね上がり、過去数年から急激に増加し、冷却市場を示しています。 🕒📉
- A full 54.6% of homes are now selling below their list price, a level not seen in years, while just 26.5% are selling above. Sellers are increasingly forced to adjust their expectations as buyers gain more leverage. 🛑📉
- The median sale-to-list price ratio has fallen to 0.990, reflecting stronger buyer negotiations and a decline in seller power. 🕵️♂️🔍
Not all homes, however, are affected equally. Properties in prime locations and move-in-ready condition continue to attract buyers, while those in less desirable areas or requiring renovations are facing steep discounts. 🏡🌟
But with borrowing costs surging, the housing market has become far less liquid. Many potential sellers are unwilling to part with their low fixed-rate mortgages, while buyers struggle with higher monthly payments. 🏦💥
This lack of liquidity is a fundamental weakness. Unlike Bitcoin, which can be traded 24/7 with near-instant execution, real estate transactions are slow, expensive, and often take months to finalize. 🕒🔄
As economic uncertainty lingers and capital seeks more efficient stores of value, the barriers to entry and sluggish liquidity of real estate are becoming major disadvantages. 🛑💥
Too many homes, too few coins
While the housing market struggles with rising inventory and weakening liquidity, Bitcoin is experiencing the opposite—a supply squeeze that is fueling institutional demand. 📈💰
Unlike real estate, which is influenced by debt cycles, market conditions, and ongoing development that expands supply, Bitcoin’s total supply is permanently capped at 21 million. 🛍️🔒
Bitcoin’s absolute scarcity is now colliding with surging demand, particularly from institutional investors, strengthening Bitcoin’s role as a long-term store of value. 🛍️💰
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 triggered a massive wave of institutional inflows, dramatically shifting the supply-demand balance. 📈💰
Since their launch, these ETFs have attracted over $40 billion in net inflows, with financial giants like BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity controlling the majority of holdings. 🛍️💰
The demand surge has absorbed Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate, with daily ETF purchases ranging from 1,000 to 3,000 BTC—far exceeding the roughly 500 new coins mined each day. This growing supply deficit is making Bitcoin increasingly scarce in the open market. 📈💰
At the same time, Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to 2.5 million BTC, the lowest level in three years. More investors are withdrawing their holdings from exchanges, signaling strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential rather than treating it as a short-term trade. 🛍️🔒
Further reinforcing this trend, long-term holders continue to dominate supply. As of December 2023, 71% of all Bitcoin had remained untouched for over a year, highlighting deep investor commitment. 🛍️🔒
While this figure has slightly declined to 62% as of Feb. 18, the broader trend points to Bitcoin becoming an increasingly tightly held asset over time. 🛍️🔒
The flippening isn’t coming — it’s here
As of January 2025, the median U.S. home-sale price stands at $350,667, with mortgage rates hovering near 7%. This combination has pushed monthly mortgage payments to record highs, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for younger generations. 🏡💥
To put this into perspective:
- A 20% down payment on a median-priced home now exceeds $70,000—a figure that, in many cities, surpasses the total home price of previous decades. 🏡💥
- First-time homebuyers now represent just 24% of total buyers, a historic low compared to the long-term average of 40%–50%. 🏡💥
- Total U.S. household debt has surged to $18.04 trillion, with mortgage balances accounting for 70% of the total—reflecting the growing financial burden of homeownership. 🏦💥
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has outperformed real estate over the past decade, boasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 102.36% since 2011—compared to housing’s 5.5% CAGR over the same period. 📈💰
But beyond returns, a deeper generational shift is unfolding. Millennials and Gen Z, raised in a digital-first world, see traditional financial systems as slow, rigid, and outdated. 📱💻
The idea of owning a decentralized, borderless asset like Bitcoin is far more appealing than being tied to a 30-year mortgage with unpredictable property taxes, insurance costs, and maintenance expenses. 📱💻
Surveys suggest that younger investors increasingly prioritize financial flexibility and mobility over homeownership. Many prefer renting and keeping their assets liquid rather than committing to the illiquidity of real estate. 🏠🔄
Bitcoin’s portability, round-the-clock trading, and resistance to censorship align perfectly with this mindset. 📱💻
Does this mean real estate is becoming obsolete? Not entirely. It remains a hedge against inflation and a valuable asset in high-demand areas. 🏡🌟
But the inefficiencies of the housing market—combined with Bitcoin’s growing institutional acceptance—are reshaping investment preferences. For the first time in history, a digital asset is competing directly with physical real estate as a long-term store of value. 🛍️💰
The question is no longer whether Bitcoin is an alternative to real estate—it’s how quickly investors will adjust to this new reality. 🕵️♂️🔍
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2025-02-19 16:40